Automated model linkages: the example of CAPRI

Increasing demand for policy impact assessment regarding social, economic and environmental aspects asks for combined application of different models and tools. The paper discusses concepts and challenges in linking models, taking CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) model as an example. CAPRI combines different economic models, spatial downscaling and interfaces to bio-physical components. 250 non-linear regional programming models with econometrically estimated costs functions cover the EU-27, Norway and Western Balkans. They are consistently linked to a spatial globally closed trade model, covering 60 countries / country blocks and 50 primary and secondary agricultural products. The link is based on sequential calibration: the market models prices drive the programming models whereas its supply and feed demand curves are calibrated to the programming models’ results, iteratively repeated to convergence. CAPRI integrates projection results from other model systems in the baseline generation and calibrates the supply models to econometric estimations or the supply response from other models as in SEAMLESS. The spatial down-scaling component breaks down the regional EU-27 results regarding cropping shares, crop yields, animal stocking densities and fertilizer application rates to about 140 000 1x1 km pixel cluster and links these results to a statistical meta model of the bio-physical model DNDC.model linkage, linking economic and environmental models, policy impact assessment, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

EU-WIDE FARM TYPES SUPPLY IN CAPRI - HOW TO CONSISTENTLY DISAGGREGATE SECTOR MODELS INTO FARM TYPE MODEL

EU-wide farm supply analysis, highest posterior density estimator, CAPRI, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN EU POLICIES – CHALLENGES FOR PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS

This paper gives an overview on current and prospective modelling challenges for agricultural partial equilibrium (PE) models focussing on EU policies. Starting from a certain policy context, the paper highlights the current capabilities and limitations of existing PE models and, if available, develops some ideas on future modelling directions to advance the usefulness of quantitative information provided.Policy impact assessment, agricultural partial equilibrium models, Common Agricultural Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Plagiarism Without Apology--Systematic Integration of Available Information in a Long Run Agricultural Outlook

In the context of a long run agricultural outlook on behalf of the European Environmental Agency a new methodology has been developed to systematically integrate external forecasts into a quite detailed agricultural sector model. External forecasts usually provide estimates for the exogenous variables in modelling work and frequently they are also used for comparisons and potential reassessment of empirical specifications. The innovative characteristic of this study is that expert forecasts have been used to specify parameter changes expressing structural change affecting behavioural functions. The outlook was therefore set up as a simultaneous estimation and forecasting effort which permitted to integrate various, usually contradictory expert forecasts subject to the equations of the sector model.agricultural outlook, forecasting, modelling, expert information, Agricultural and Food Policy, C15, C53, Q11, Q19, Q21,

Effects of decoupling on land use: an EU wide, regionally differentiated analysis

This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the impacts of the „Luxembourg Compromise†as compared to a continuation of Agenda 2000 to the year 2010. The employed new version of the CAPRI model allows us to represent the different member states’ implementations of the CAP reform and to reflect endogenous world market prices based upon a spatial global trade model. The specific contribution of the analysis is a detailed look at the impacts of national differences in the CAP implementation and regional production structures with respect to changes in land allocation. At EU level, cereal areas decrease by about 5% and oilseeds by about 3%. This is paralleled by increases in the set-aside acreage and extensive fodder production. However, significant differences at the regional level can be observed. They are caused mainly by differences in the shares of durum wheat and fodder maize.decoupling, agricultural sector modelling, Luxembourg Agreement, land allocation, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Modelling regional maize market and transport distances for biogas production in Germany

Our location model aims to simulate location decisions for biogas plants based on profit maximisation to generate regional demand functions for maize and corresponding plant size structure and transport distances. By linking it with an agricultural sector model we derived regional maize markets. Comparing results for the REA with a scenario applying uniform per unit subsidy and producing the same energy, we see higher subsidy costs with the REA but lower transportation distances.Biogas, environmental effects, transport costs, choice of location, Agricultural Finance, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Trading schemes for greenhouse gas emissions from European agriculture: A comparative analysis based on different implementation options

A rational negotiation strategy for coming multilateral negotiations regarding climate change requires knowledge about possible social, economic and environmental effects of policy instruments for the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions. With this purpose, an agricultural sector model is expanded to cover greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural sources in Europe and policy instruments for their reduction. This modelling approach concentrates on the application of a permit trade scheme for emission abatement within the Kyoto Protocol ‘first commitment’ baseline. The effects derived of three alternative schemes are described in detail: the EU ‘burden sharing’ agreement option defined as regional emission standards, emission trading between regions inside each Member State, and finally, emission trading between all European regions. The analysis shows the importance of selecting an adequate combination of instruments of emission abatement for the design of efficient emission reduction policies.Kyoto Protocol, agricultural policy, economic modelling, tradable emission permits

Definition of the CAPRI Core Modelling System and Interfaces with other Components of SEAMLESS-IF

Environmental Economics and Policy,

Economy-wide Impacts of Food Waste Reduction: A General Equilibrium Approach

Food waste is increasingly recognized as an important factor threatening not only food security, but as well several dimensions of sustainability of the food system. However most of the studies in the literature focus on technological aspects and ignore the costs of options to reduce food waste. In this study we develop a framework to analyse the effects of food waste reduction in a CGE model to reflect associated costs across sectors and agents. Our results suggest that enforced food waste reduction, e.g. by regularity measures such as standards, may cause severe loss of competitiveness for agriculture and food production.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

EU-wide Distributional Effects of EU Direct Payments Harmonization analyzed with CAPRI

We argue in this paper that available econometric estimates of farmers’ risk aversion do not measure true farmers’ preferences towards risky outcomes. Available analyses are mostly of static nature and indeed measure the parameters of the synthetic optimal value function rather than the deep parameters of the utility functions. We derive analytical and empirical results in a simple dynamic and stochastic framework showing that that there is not a simple relationship between utility functions and value functions when agents have many decision variables. In particular we find that the value function does not necessarily exhibit DARA when the instantaneous utility function satisfies DARA and conversely. We recommend performing dynamic econometric estimation with at least farm production and consumption data.distributional effects, SPS, flat-rate payment, CAP reform, farm level model, CAPRI farm type layer, International Relations/Trade, Q11, Q12, Q18,